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Kibaki will probably win this elections


By Udi Kagwe

It is difficult for anyone to deny that Kenya is at a good place today. Certainly much better than in years past. A brisk walk around Nairobi reveals working city traffic lights, clean parks (yes, even the Jevanjee Gardens are in impeccable order), painted and well repaired roads.

Driving to Mombasa, as many of us did over the jut ended holidays and we find that the road is well built and well done. The parts finished between Mtito Andei and the outskirts of the coastal city are well done and in good order.

The various industries from agriculture to tourism to ICT are opening up and there have been a good number of indusries opened.  Investment in Kenya by kenyans has increased and data from the Central Bureau of Statistics is glowing.

As I write this, over 50,000 foreigners are gathered in Nairobi from all over the world for the next five days. They are attending the 7th World Social Forum at the Nairobi’s Kasarani Complex. Word has it that well over half of these people are not staying in hotels, but are put up in people’s houses across Nairobi. An estimated Kshs. 100,000,000 is being injected into the economy this week.

Just the other day the Kenyatta  International Conference Centre was re-admitted into the association of conference venues called International Congress and Convention Association and also International Association of Congress Centres, after many years in exclusion.

All these and many more issues would indicate that President Mwai Kibaki is sitting pretty to be re-elected for another five years ass Kenya’s leader. Or would it?

Against him

As things look right now, the most obvious blemish on President Kibaki’s administration is the ever unfolding Kshs. 50 Million corruption scandal, in which key members of his cabinet, David Mwiraria, Energy Minister and poet, Kiraitu Mutungi as well as his number 2, Kenya’s favorite uncle, Moody Awori.

Some shenanigans are clearly being held as Justice Aaron Ringera attempts to clear the ministers of any wrongdoing. A key positive thing about todays Kenya is that there are no media inhibitions and we quickly heard stinging critisism and condemnation of the action to the extent that the Attorney General was forced to back track – if ever so slightly.

In Oxford, the indegefatigable Czar of Fighting Graft, John Githongo has vowed to fight it out to the bitter end. As far as he goes, there shall be no sweeping of anything under any carpet.

Essentially what this means for Kibaki is that he’s in a bad position and if not handled well,  things could go awry for him. On the one hand, he has to keep his friends close if he is to return to power and on the other, the county will have him for dinner if he doesn’t deal with it.

All indications are that he is asleep on the job and that he has refused to do anything about the situation.

Don’t under Estimate Kibaki

It would be a dangerous mistake to assume that Kibaki has gone dormant. History has shown that he is a wile individual and that his silence always means something.

In Former President Moi’s cabinet, Kibaki was the most closely watched by Moi’s men because he was perceived as the greatest threat. No wonder because it was he and “Sir” Charles Mugane (jokingly pronounced Mue-Gain) Njonjo, who outmaneuvred the Kiambu Mafia from making a travesty of the constitution – by simply announcing the cabinet’s support for the Vice President.

During this time that he was being so closely watched, Kibaki spent his time very conservatively, nary being seen in secret meetings. Stories are told of how he told people at the Muthaiga Golf Club to stay away or else they would be in trouble.

On December 25th 1986, Kibaki resigned – with a press statement rather than a quiet reignation letter to the president. Barely a week later, he announced the birth of DP – complete with National offices at locational levels.

A similar stance was taken in the previous election and some analysts claim that Kibaki actually manipuated the opposition leaders to agree on him. Certainly before he was seen at the breakfast meetings with Charity Ngilu and the late Wamalwa, he was as always a deep river, running silently.

Beware of the falls.

If you want to respond to this article in depth and you would like to have your analysis published in the Races series,  please send your article to The Editorial team will decide on whether you will be published and when.

5 thoughts on “Kibaki will probably win this elections”

  1. Don’t sugar coat a lazy,senile,impotent,cowardly and out-of-tune 70’s man who happen to be our president.His only chance for re-election is opposition(ODM) disentegrating.

  2. Nice & well balanced article Udi.

    As for Patrick I have sad news for you (and for me as well). Kibaki will be re-elected and not because of his/his govts outstanding achievements (I could count maybe just one i.e improving the economy; which I believe would have improved anyway because Kenyans word damn hard) but because there is no contender worth toppling the old man off his seat.

    Yes you heard me – (as much as I believe Uhuru should be the chairman of KANU, that he should leave all that ODM-K hullaballoo and work on cleaning up the messes in KANU till 2010 when he will surely be ripe for the Presidency) – I believe that there is currently no one who stands a head above the rest (as was the case of David in the Bible) as a clear leader for 2007 & beyond.

    Therefore, better the devil we know. Hopefully, giving the Kibaki administration another 5 years will put us in good stead as far as any transitional govt should take us in terms of having some semblance of economic stability.

  3. I ideally agree with Vee, there is no possible better contender for presidency unless the one who is yet to come.

    Incidentally i think voting ODM would be sneaking in KANU via backdoor.

    I will not trash what Kibaki has done, though some things do leave a lot to be desired.

    One thing that disappoints me totally about Kibaki administration is the lack of good will to fight corruption.

    Otherwise the so called grumpy old man, many Kenyans will agree with me that he has tried his best especially if you have been fortunate enough to have stints at the Civil service.

  4. Daniels,It might not be as easy as you think to remove Kikuyus from power.
    Kikuyus rule Kenya and they will always will.
    Case scenario:You remember Referendum?All 41 tribes voted against the ONE tribe.Results?60% against 40%.One tribe alone!!!!!40%. In ODM,there are so many wrangles and trbes (Kamba and Luo and Luhya) have been heard to say that if one of their sons is not chosen to represent ODM,they would rather vote for Kibaki.

    Kikuyus are by far more superior and industrious than any other tribe in East AFrica-that is a fact;like it or not.
    im not a kikuyu-im a Digo but let truth be told.

  5. i think somebody is missing the point here. the 60%/40% ration in the referendum was not kenyans vs kikuyus. this is so because, although kikuyus and the rest of gema voted almost 100% bananas, very many other regions like bukusus, kambas, rift valley, kisii etc voted bananas too. remove this big part from the 40% and kibaki gets 20-25% in the coming general elections.add the way lucy has been treating kenyans of late and another 5-10% is gone. add the silence being witnessed among kibakis soldiers and the infighting among the various panua friendly parties another 5-10% goes.the man should actually be out of the race by now- he really has guts eh!

    i am not a luo, but i can assure yu that come jan 2008 raila will be your president.

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